Bitcoin (BTC) has spent almost a month at or near $30,000, but this is no coincidence, new analysis claims.
In one of its Quicktake market updates on July 17, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted three key factors keeping BTC price action in the same place.
Bitcoin speculators in the driving seat
Bitcoin has rebuffed any attempt at a breakout for weeks on end, making casual one-year highs but always falling lower afterward.
For CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler, this has roots — among other things — in speculative trading.
Short-term holders (STHs), he notes, have divested themselves of their holdings since April, leading to increased selling pressure above $30,000.
“This group is actively selling off their Bitcoin reserves, exerting significant pressure on the market,” he wrote.
“This indicates that short-term investors are actively liquidating their assets, thereby locking in their profits.”
CryptoQuant defines STHs as entities hodling coins for six months or less.
Bitcoin STH supply annotated chart. Source: CryptoQuant
Other recent data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode led analysts to the conclusion that the STH cost basis — recently around $26,400 — is likewise keeping BTC price action afloat in times of more pronounced downside pressure.
Miner selling preempts Bitcoin halving
Bitcoin miners are also on the radar this quarter as higher BTC prices spark an uptick in sales.
For Adler, selling BTC holdings to cover expenses ahead of the block subsidy halving in 2024 marks another factor influencing price performance today.
“Miners are actively selling their Bitcoin reserves,” he summarized.
“This is not a random occurrence; we have seen peak sales over the last year. This is connected to the upcoming halving event when the reward for mining Bitcoin decreases by half. Miners require liquidity to invest in new equipment to stay competitive.”
Bitcoin Miner Exchange Inflow Realized Price annotated chart. Source: CryptoQuant
As Cointelegraph reported, mining pool Poolin recently contributed extensive exchange inflows, sending large tranches of BTC to Binance. This has since become a topic of speculation in its own right, amid rumors over the pool’s financial buoyancy.
Real BTC price volatility absent
Bitcoin volatility remains among its lowest in terms of historical context.
Related: BTC traders brace for $30K loss — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
CryptoQuant reveals a net slowdown in trading activity since April, as those taking profit hope for a more substantial breakout to come.
Data from TradingView shows the Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) at 14.77 as of July 18 — far below even its 2023 peak.
Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) chart. Source: TradingView
“All these factors together form the current picture of the Bitcoin market, where the price appears to be ‘stuck’ in a narrow range,” Adler concluded.
“However, as always with cryptocurrencies, changes can occur very quickly, so investors and traders should closely monitor on-chain metrics to stay informed about market changes.”
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.